YX 5645 · MSN → DCA

took off 5:04 PM CT · landed 7:41 PM ET (scheduled 5:20 PM CT → 8:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5645 · MSN → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?