Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5689 LANDED 10:31 PM ET, ~131 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

YX 5689 · DCA → BOS

took off 9:11 PM ET · landed 10:31 PM ET (scheduled 6:30 PM ET → 8:29 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BOS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5689 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late did it get to BOS?