Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5751
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 5751 · LGA → BOS
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 10:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 40%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.