Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 5818 · LGA → CLT
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 21%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.