Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5826
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
YX 5826 · DTW → IND
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 8%
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.