Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1468 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

departs 9:52 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1468 · MIA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?