Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1551 LANDED 5:51 PM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1551 · MIA → MEM

took off 4:53 PM ET · landed 5:51 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1551 · MIA → MEM

Odds over time