Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1594 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 1594 · MIA → STL

departs 8:54 PM ET · arrives 10:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1594 · MIA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?