Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1944 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 1944 · TPA → DCA

departs 9:53 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1944 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time