Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1999 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1999 · CLT → JAX

departs 3:49 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1999 · CLT → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?