Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 2104 · MCO → DCA

departs 12:13 PM ET · arrives 2:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2104 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?