Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?