Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?