Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±7 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?