AA 2262 · MIA → LGA

departs 7:47 PM ET · arrives 10:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.20 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2262 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?