AA 2848 · MIA → DCA

took off 8:09 AM ET · expected to land 10:13 AM ET (scheduled 8:05 AM ET → 10:50 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.26 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2848 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?