AA 2958 · DFW → FAT

departs 9:46 PM CT · arrives 11:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±3 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
18%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

FAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2958 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?