Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3174 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 3174 · PHX → FAT

departs 9:32 PM MT · arrives 11:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3174 · PHX → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?