AA 419 · CLT → DTW

departs 8:46 PM ET · arrives 10:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 419 · CLT → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?