Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 419 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 419 · CLT → DTW

departs 8:46 PM ET · arrives 10:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 419 · CLT → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?