AA 434 · CLT → AUS

departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 434 · CLT → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?