Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 434 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 434 · CLT → AUS

departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±8 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 434 · CLT → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?