AA 470 · PHL → ORD

departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±3 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 470 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?