tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 470 · PHL → ORD

departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
44% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2.8d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ORD?

  1. On time or early
    55%
  2. 15–30 min late
    0%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    16%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    18%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    9%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.