Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 751 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 751 · CLT → SEA

took off 6:13 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:40 PM ET → 8:25 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 751 · CLT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?