Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 751 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 751 · CLT → SEA

departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 751 · CLT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?