Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 870 LANDED 10:19 AM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 870 · MSP → MIA

took off 6:22 AM CT · landed 10:19 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MSP are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 870 · MSP → MIA

Odds over time