AS 1178 · HNL → KOA

departs 5:34 PM HT · arrives 6:35 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1178 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?