tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1178 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AS 1178 · HNL → KOA

departs 9:03 PM HT · arrives 9:50 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 105h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
21% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 5.2d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to KOA?

  1. On time or early
    77%
  2. 15–30 min late
    12%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    3%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    6%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.