Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1178 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1178 · HNL → KOA

departs 9:03 PM HT · arrives 9:50 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

KOA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1178 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?