AS 1269 · OGG → LIH

departs 3:43 PM HT · arrives 4:30 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1269 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?