Schedule: a typical Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Monday, October 5

AS 1269 · OGG → LIH

departs 3:43 PM HT · arrives 4:30 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 126h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Monday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Mon, Oct 5. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for OGG and LIH appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1269 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?