Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1269 · OGG → LIH

departs 3:43 PM HT · arrives 4:30 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1269 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?