Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1428SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AS 1428 · SEA → SMF
departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 1:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±2 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.