Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1428SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1428 · SEA → SMF
departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 1:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±5 pts−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.