Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1428 · SEA → SMF
departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 1:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to SMF?
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On time or early
63%
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15–30 min late
18%
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30 min–1 hour late
13%
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1–2 hours late
4%
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Over 2 hours late
2%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.