Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1471SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AS 1471 · SEA → SAN
departs 7:26 AM PT · arrives 10:23 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±0 pts+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREVery high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.