Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow

AS 1471 · SEA → SAN

departs 7:26 AM PT · arrives 10:23 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Odds over time

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 2.9d 2d 1d Now 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SAN?

  1. On time or early
    66%
  2. 15–30 min late
    16%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    12%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    4%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    <1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.