Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1471SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1471 · SEA → SAN
departs 7:26 AM PT · arrives 10:23 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
23%chance · ±2 pts−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.