AS 14 · SAN → DCA

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 14 · SAN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?