Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 14 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 14 · SAN → DCA

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 14 · SAN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?