Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 14 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:11 PM PT, ETA 8:37 PM ET)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 14 · SAN → DCA

took off 1:11 PM PT · expected to land 8:37 PM ET (scheduled 12:42 PM PT → 9:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 14 · SAN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?