Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 16 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 16 · SEA → JFK

departs 7:28 AM PT · arrives 2:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 16 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time