Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 16 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 16 · SEA → JFK

departs 2:02 PM PT · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 16 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?