tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 16 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AS 16 · SEA → JFK

departs 2:02 PM PT · arrives 10:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 3.8d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to JFK?

  1. On time or early
    66%
  2. 15–30 min late
    17%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    6%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.