AS 438 · SEA → IAH

departs 10:52 AM PT · arrives 5:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 438 · SEA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?