Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 438 · SEA → IAH

departs 10:52 AM PT · arrives 5:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 438 · SEA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?