AS 551 · DFW → SAN

departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 3:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 551 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?