Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 551 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 551 · DFW → SAN

departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 3:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 551 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?