AS 714 · PDX → MSP

departs 11:04 AM PT · arrives 4:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PDX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at MSP that day

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 714 · PDX → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?